Jacksonville Beaches and Coastal Northeast Florida Housing Market: Week of October 19, 2026

Weekly Housing Market Summary

Freddie Mac's 30 year fixed average held at 7.40% on October 15, 2026, unchanged from the week before and up from 6.27% a year ago. In September, the six county NEFAR region's median single family price rose 1.1% to $399,000, and Duval County's median was $345,000 with a 3.8 month supply.

The local story for waterfront buyers is a proposal on the St. Johns River. Ashco Centers unveiled plans on October 15 for the Seaport at St. Johns, a two tower mixed use project with a marina on the Southbank, at the site of the Duval County Public Schools headquarters. It is a proposal, not a permit. Here is what has been confirmed and what has not.

Key Housing Market Numbers

Every row names its source and its month. County figures are single family homes. September 2026 is the latest month published by NEFAR, so that is the month used throughout.

Mortgage rates

County market numbers

A note on small differences. Not every source matches NEFAR's October 8 release to the dollar. Florida Politics, reporting on October 12, listed Duval's median at $344,000 on 844 closed sales and St. Johns at $575,000 on 401 closed sales. Momentum Realty's September Market Pulse, built from individual realMLS records and published October 18, also shows St. Johns at $575,000. Late reported closings and different cleaning rules explain the gaps. I lead with NEFAR's official release and tell you when another source disagrees.

What is the Seaport at St. Johns, and where does it stand?

On October 15, 2026, Jacksonville developer Ashco Centers announced a proposed redevelopment called The Seaport at St. Johns. The site is 1701 Prudential Drive on the Southbank of the St. Johns River, where the Duval County Public Schools headquarters sits today. I am going to give you the facts that are confirmed in more than one place, then the parts that are still open. That is the habit I took from the Navy.

What has been confirmed

Three sources agree on the core of the plan: Jax Daily Record, Action News Jax, and News4JAX. The plan calls for two towers and a hotel, about 110,000 square feet of retail, a grocery store, waterfront dining, a marina, and a public promenade and plaza with a walkable connection to the Southbank Riverwalk. Jax Daily Record reports that each tower would be 20 stories. Ashco's own project page says the same, and describes the site as 4.87 acres. News4JAX also gives the site as 4.87 acres.

On the land itself, the Duval County School Board voted unanimously on October 6 to sell the headquarters property to Ashco for about $15.1 million. News4JAX gives the exact price as $15.132 million. Both Jax Daily Record and Action News Jax say the district has up to three years to relocate before a sale closes. News4JAX reports that the three years are measured from the end of an investigation period, so the outside date could be later than that. The School Board's deal is a separate step from the Seaport proposal, and it is the first thing that has to happen.

This is not the first plan for the property. According to News4JAX and Jax Daily Record, an earlier $17.2 million deal with Chase Properties fell through in February 2026.

What has not been confirmed

Ashco's project page calls the redevelopment conceptual and says the project is subject to approvals. An Ashco representative told Action News Jax that the company is in the due diligence phase. No construction start date has been announced in any source I found.

So here is where I land. This is a proposal on a site the developer does not yet own, with a seller that cannot hand over the keys for up to three years. Plans on paper are not docks in the water. I would not make a buying or selling decision for a property anywhere on the river based on this announcement alone.

Why a waterfront agent is paying attention anyway

A marina in the plan is why this matters to the people I work with. Boaters and dock owners care about where public and commercial waterfront is, how much slip space exists, and who controls access. A proposed marina and a public promenade tied to the Riverwalk add to that conversation, even in concept.

What I will not do is tell you this plan raises or lowers anyone's property value. Nobody can say that yet, and no source I found tries to. If it moves forward, I will track the permits, the approvals, and the construction schedule, and I will report each step with a source.

How to read any development announcement

The Seaport is a good case study, because the same headline can mean very different things depending on where a project is in the process. Here is the checklist I use, and you can use it on any proposal near a home you own or want to buy.

1. Who owns the land? A developer without a closed purchase is a buyer with a plan. In the Seaport's case, the School Board approved a sale, and the closing can be years away.

2. What approvals are needed? Zoning, site plans, permits, and any water related approvals each take time and can change a design. Ask which approvals are in hand, which are pending, and which have not been filed.

3. Is there money behind it? A rendering is not financing. Look for named lenders, equity partners, or public agreements, and treat anything else as a wish.

4. Is there a date? A project with no stated start or finish date is a concept. Be wary of anyone who gives you a delivery year that the developer has not given.

5. How many sources say the same thing? When three outlets and the developer's own page agree on the number of towers and the acreage, I report it. When only one source has a figure, I leave it out. That is why you will not see an incentive amount or a unit count in this post.

If you own or are buying near the Southbank, my advice is to read the primary documents as they appear: School Board minutes, city agendas, and permit filings. If you want help finding them, call me.

For last week's coastal brief, with the August numbers, see my October 5 update.

What do these numbers mean for waterfront buyers and sellers?

Rates: what 7.40% does to a payment

Freddie Mac's survey is built on borrowers who put 20% down with excellent credit, so I run my math the same way. These are principal and interest only, not a quote. Taxes, homeowners insurance, flood insurance, and association dues are extra, and your lender's real rate may differ from the survey average.

Take St. Johns County's September median of $568,750. A 20% down payment is $113,750, which leaves a loan of $455,000. At 7.40% for 30 years, principal and interest comes to about $3,150 a month by my math. At last year's 6.27%, the same loan would have been about $2,807. That is about $343 more every month for the same house.

In Duval County, the September median of $345,000 means a loan of $276,000 after 20% down. At 7.40%, that is about $1,911 a month, against about $1,703 at 6.27%. In Nassau County, the $496,500 median means a loan of $397,200, about $2,750 a month at 7.40% against about $2,451 at 6.27%. The higher the price, the more each point of rate matters.

Where supply stands

NEFAR reports supply of 3.7 months in St. Johns County, 3.8 in Duval, 4.4 in Clay, and 4.5 in Nassau. The six county region is at 4.0 months. Florida Realtors puts statewide single family supply at 4.4 months. Nassau had the largest monthly price jump of the four, up 9.3% to $496,500, on only 96 closed sales. Small counties produce big swings from a handful of sales. I would not call that a trend until I see a few more months.

For buyers: negotiation, appraisals, concessions, and buydowns

NEFAR President Kim Knapp said in the October 8 release that buyers have more choices and negotiating power. The region's closed sales fell 9.5% from August, and homes took a median of 36 days to sell. That is a market where an organized buyer can ask for things.

Ask for a rate buydown quote. A seller paid buydown lowers your rate for a period or permanently, depending on the structure. Ask your lender to price both. At 7.40%, a small drop in rate changes a large loan more than it changes a small one.

Plan for the appraisal. Waterfront appraisals depend on comparable waterfront sales, and good comparables can be thin. A deep water dock with a lift is not the same as a shallow creek lot, and an appraiser may or may not weigh that the way you do. If an appraisal comes in under the contract price, your options are to renegotiate, split the gap, add cash, or exit if your contract allows. Read your appraisal contingency before you sign.

Ask for concessions that match the risk. If the dock needs work or the seawall shows cracks, get a contractor's written estimate during your inspection period and use it in negotiation. A repair credit tied to a real number is easier to get than a vague request.

For sellers: price off real closed sales and document the water

If your home has been listed longer than the 29 days Duval homes took in September, or the 42 days St. Johns homes took, it is worth a hard look at price, photos, and condition. NEFAR's own message to sellers in the October 8 release was that homes with the right combination of price, condition, and value are better positioned to attract attention.

For waterfront sellers, the paperwork is part of the product. Have your dock permit information, any survey that shows the property line at the water, bulkhead or seawall repair records, and recent insurance details ready before the first showing. Organized records make a buyer's decision easier. Gaps found late in the process lead to requests for credits or to cancelled contracts.

Why the numbers differ from source to source

Housing data is not a single number. NEFAR published on October 8. Florida Politics reported a regional median of $398,566 and 1,608 closed sales on October 12, compared with NEFAR's $399,000 and 1,581. Neither is wrong. They measure slightly different things on slightly different dates.

My rule is the same on every post. I lead with the official release. When another credible source differs by more than rounding, I say so. If I cannot confirm a number in two places, I leave it out.

Questions to put to your lender this week

Rates move every week, and the survey average is only a starting point. Before you write an offer on a waterfront home, ask your lender these questions and get the answers in writing.

What is my actual rate and APR today, and for how many days can I lock it? A lock that expires before your closing date is a risk, especially if an inspection or an appraisal causes a delay.

What are the costs of a temporary buydown and a permanent one? Ask for the monthly payment in each year under each option, not just the headline rate.

Does the property type change the loan? Condos, homes with docks, and homes on septic or well can each raise questions during underwriting. Ask early.

What will my full monthly payment be? Principal and interest is only part of it. Add property taxes, homeowners insurance, flood insurance if the property is in a flood zone, and association dues. For a waterfront home, insurance can be a large number, so get quotes before you commit.

None of this is a prediction about where rates go next. It is a way to make sure you are comparing real numbers on the day you decide.

The statewide picture

Florida Realtors reported on October 16 that statewide closed sales of existing single family homes in September totaled 20,537, down 3.5% from a year ago, with a median price of $415,000, up 1.2%. Florida Realtors economist Dr. Brad O'Connor said that rising mortgage rates are the biggest story in housing and that the gap between rates today and a year ago "is not doing the housing market any favors."

What should you check on the water in each part of the coast?

NEFAR publishes county level numbers, not town by town numbers, so I do not have verified September prices for individual beaches. What I can give you is a checklist for each part of my territory. These are my recommendations, not market statistics.

1. Jacksonville Beach, Neptune Beach, and Atlantic Beach

For oceanfront and near ocean homes, ask for the flood zone and an insurance quote before you finish your inspection period. Ask about roof age and wind mitigation features, which matter to insurers. For homes on the Intracoastal side, add the dock and seawall checks listed below. The City of Jacksonville Beach posts its meeting and event calendar at jacksonvillebeach.org, which is where I check for council and planning agendas that may affect a property.

2. Ponte Vedra Beach and the Intracoastal Waterway

On the ICW, depth is everything. Ask for the water depth at the end of the dock at low tide. Ask what size boat the dock and lift actually handle. Ask whether the lift is owned or part of the sale, and whether it has a recent service record. A dock with tired pilings is a replacement cost, and replacement costs show up in negotiation.

3. St. Augustine

St. Johns County's September median of $568,750 and 3.7 month supply give a sense of the county as a whole, but waterfront lots in the city and along the Matanzas are their own market. Confirm the flood zone, any local historic or design rules that may apply to exterior changes, and the condition of any seawall or bulkhead. Ask the seller for whatever permit paperwork exists for the dock.

4. Amelia Island and Fernandina Beach

Nassau County's median rose 9.3% in September to $496,500, on only 96 closed sales. Thin sales volume means one or two high priced closings can move the median. For island and river homes, ask for insurance history and quotes early, confirm the flood zone, and check dock and seawall permits just as you would anywhere else on the coast.

5. Green Cove Springs and the St. Johns River

Clay County's September median was $355,000, down 4.1% from August, with homes taking a median of 48 days to sell and a 4.4 month supply. On river frontage, ask how the shoreline behaves over a year: where the high water mark sits, whether there is erosion, whether the bulkhead is intact, and what the dock looks like after a storm. Get a survey that shows the line at the water. On the St. Johns, a mooring or dock that looks fine in October may tell a different story in a wet spring.

A short waterfront inspection list

These are the items I would put on any waterfront inspection list: the dock decking and pilings, the boat lift motor and cables, the seawall or bulkhead (cracks, leaning, voids behind the wall), the roof, the electrical service to the dock, and the water depth. Pay for the right inspector. A general inspector can tell you if the house is sound. A marine contractor can tell you if the dock is.

What local events are happening October 22 to November 1, 2026?

Each event below was confirmed on at least two sources, listed with each one. Check the organizer's page before you go, because details can change.

If you are shopping for a waterfront home, a Saturday morning at Penman Park or the Seawalk Pavilion is a good way to see how each part of the beaches feels on an ordinary weekend, with parking, traffic, and noise all in view.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the median home price in Duval County right now?

NEFAR reports that the September 2026 median price for single family homes in Duval County was $345,000, up 3.6% from August, with 830 closed sales, a median of 29 days on the market, and a 3.8 month supply. Florida Politics reported a slightly different figure of $344,000 on 844 closings, which reflects a different data pull.

What is the Seaport at St. Johns?

It is a proposed mixed use redevelopment by Ashco Centers at 1701 Prudential Drive on Jacksonville's Southbank. The plan includes two towers, a hotel, about 110,000 square feet of retail, a grocery store, waterfront dining, a marina, and a public promenade connected to the Southbank Riverwalk. It is conceptual. Ashco's own page says scope and timing depend on permitting and approvals, and the school district's sale of the land may take up to three years to close.

Is now a good time to buy waterfront in Northeast Florida?

Supply is 3.7 to 4.5 months across the four counties I work in, and buyers have more negotiating power than they did in tighter markets, according to NEFAR. Rates are the other half of the answer. The 30 year fixed averaged 7.40% on October 15, up from 6.27% a year ago. Whether it is a good time depends on your payment, your timeline, and the specific property. I am happy to run your numbers.

How much more is a payment at 7.40% than at 6.27%?

On a $455,000 loan, which is 80% of St. Johns County's September median price, principal and interest at 7.40% is about $3,150 a month and at 6.27% is about $2,807 by my math. That is about $343 more each month. Taxes, insurance, and association dues are extra.

What should I check on a dock before I buy?

Check the decking and pilings, the lift motor and cables, the electrical service, the seawall or bulkhead, and the water depth at low tide. Ask the seller for permit information and repair records. Hire a marine contractor if the dock is a key reason you are buying.

Tim's Take

I served in the Navy, and the habit that stuck with me is simple: separate what is confirmed from what is hoped for. The Seaport at St. Johns is hoped for. A developer has a concept, a school board has a sale agreement, and a lot of approvals sit between the two. That does not make it unimportant. It makes it early.

The market itself is plainer. Rates at 7.40% are doing most of the work on buyer behavior. Supply is giving buyers room to ask for things. Sellers who document the water, price off real closed sales, and fix what is fixable are the ones who will be in the best spot.

If you are looking at a property on the water, call me before you fall in love with the view. Bring me the dock, the depth, and the paperwork, and I will tell you what I see.

Looking at a property on the water?

Call or text Tim Sherman, The Saltwater Realtor, at (904) 449-7146, or email agenttimsherman@gmail.com. Learn more on the About page.

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Sources

Data month: September 2026 (NEFAR, Florida Realtors). Rates: Freddie Mac, October 15, 2026. All links were checked on October 21, 2026.

• Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS archive, and October 15 news release
• Realtor.com: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40%
• NEFAR September 2026 market release and NEFAR Market Statistics
• Jax Daily Record: Home sales activity declines in Northeast Florida
• Florida Politics: Northeast Florida housing sales slide again in September
• Momentum Market Pulse, September 2026
• Florida Realtors: September and 3Q 2026 housing report and PR Newswire copy
• Jax Daily Record: Ashco Centers proposes tower project on Downtown Southbank
• Action News Jax: Jacksonville developer plans towers, hotel and marina for Southbank riverfront
• News4JAX: Ashco Centers proposes mixed use waterfront development
• News4JAX: DCPS board unanimously approves $15M sale of Southbank headquarters and October 5 preview
• Ashco Centers: Seaport at St. Johns project page
• City of Jacksonville Beach calendar and Visit Jacksonville: Beaches Green Market
• Jax Beach Arts Market
• Visit St. Augustine: St. Benedict Blues Festival and St. Ben's Blues Fest
• Jax Events: Jax Beach Classic Car Cruise