Northeast Florida market data

Where the four counties stand right now

The dashboards above (once connected) show live MLS activity. Underneath that, here's the county-wide backdrop I actually work against: aggregate Zillow/Realtor.com figures published in the county housing release dated 2026-07-06, with data through Zillow's May 2026 read and Realtor.com's June 2026 read. These are county averages, not an appraisal or valuation of any specific property, and they change every release.

I use these numbers the same way every time, with every client: as a starting point for the conversation, not the answer to it. A county-wide days-on-market figure tells you nothing about whether a specific listing sits in a flood zone that's scaring off financing, or whether it's priced right for its actual condition. On the water especially, two homes a quarter-mile apart can carry very different insurance realities that no county aggregate will ever show you — that's the gap I fill in before you write an offer or set a list price, not after.

Source: county housing release published 2026-07-06 (Zillow Research data through May 2026; Realtor.com data through June 2026). "Typical value" is a Zillow Home Value Index figure, an area aggregate. Price-cut share is the percent of active listings that have taken at least one price reduction. These numbers describe the county, not your specific street — call or text (904) 449-7146 for a read on your actual neighborhood.

A quick word on "inventory, year over year": every one of these four counties is running negative, meaning fewer active listings today than a year ago at the same point in the release cycle. Paired with negative year-over-year value change, that's an unusual combination — normally, falling inventory pushes prices up, not down. My read is that demand has cooled faster than supply has tightened, which is exactly the kind of market where a well-priced, well-inspected listing still moves in line with the county's days-on-market figure, while an overpriced one sits well past it. That gap between the two outcomes is wider right now than it was a year ago.

Reading these four side by side is the point, not any single number. All four counties are showing negative year-over-year value change and price-cut shares near or above one in four listings — that's a market where sellers who price at last year's number are the ones sitting past 60 days. Nassau and St. Johns both show days-on-market well above Clay and Duval, which tracks with the higher price points in those two counties: more expensive listings take longer to clear even when the underlying demand is healthy. None of this means "don't buy" or "don't sell" — it means price and timing decisions should be made against this month's numbers, not last year's headlines.

A closer look at Clay County by ZIP

County averages flatten out real differences between towns a few miles apart. Here's the same June 2026 data-release ZIP-level breakdown for the four Clay County ZIPs I work most — Middleburg, Fleming Island's Orange Park side, and Green Cove Springs.

Source: ZIP-level Zillow Research aggregate dataset, as of the June 2026 data release. These are area figures for the ZIP code as a whole, not an appraisal of any individual home, and they shift every time new sales record.

The spread inside Clay County alone is the lesson here: 32003 on the Fleming Island side of Orange Park runs nearly $144,000 above 32073 a few miles away, and carries a noticeably lower price-cut share — meaning sellers there are holding their number better. If you're comparing Clay County towns by reputation instead of by ZIP, you're missing that gap. I grew up learning that the water and the land right next to it never behave like the map two towns over, and Clay County's ZIP-level numbers prove the same point inland.

How much leverage do buyers actually have?

The same 2026-07-06 county release publishes a "Buyer Power Index" — an equal-weight, percentile-rank composite of price-cut share, days on market, inventory year-over-year, drawdown from peak value, and one-year value change, scored 0 to 100 across all 67 Florida counties. Higher means conditions historically associated with more buyer negotiating leverage. It's descriptive, built from the same figures shown above, not a prediction and not advice.

St. Johns County's 48 is the highest of the four — not because it's cheap, it isn't, but because the composite weighs its longer days on market and larger drawdown from peak value alongside its price-cut share. None of these four scores is high in absolute terms against the statewide range, which tells you Northeast Florida overall isn't a deeply distressed buyer's market — it's a market that's cooled from its peak and is negotiable at the margins, county by county, ZIP by ZIP. That's the read I give clients: not "wait," not "jump," but "know which of these four numbers applies to the specific listing you're looking at before you decide either way."